The costs of the Iran War that started on February 28, 2026 extend well beyond the military expenses. Back in June, CSIS estimated the cost of Operation Epic Fury at $40 billion, and the U.S. military’s direct expenses have spiraled upwards since then. The broader costs of any conflict, however, include negative economic consequences both in the U.S. and abroad, as the Costs of War project at Brown University has highlighted.

Earlier this year, the Climate Solutions Lab at Brown University released the Iran War Energy Cost Tracker that measures the additional financial burden placed on American consumers by higher gasoline and diesel prices following the start of the war. It compares actual prices to a “no-war” counterfactual estimate of what prices would have been had the conflict not occurred.

On Labor Day, September 7th, 2026, the estimated amount Americans have spent on extra gasoline and diesel costs surpassed $100 billion, above what they had been paying in February 2026. This briefing revisits the same question asked in our May 18th briefing: what, as a country, could we have spent that money on instead?

What else could $100 billion have been spent on?

The United States’ aggregate fuel costs since February 28:

• Are quadruple the entire annual budget for NASA ($24 billion)
• Are about the same as the annual cost of SNAP, the Supplementary Nutrition Assistance Program ($101 billion), the largest federal anti-poverty program besides Medicaid
• Could pay for the backlog of maintenance projects on public lands and the National Park Service system ($35 billion), almost three times over

What do these costs mean for U.S. households?

American households are affected by the rising costs of gasoline and diesel. Many consumers feel gasoline prices directly at the pump, but Americans are also impacted by diesel costs, as diesel plays a central role in trucking, shipping, and power generation. Households bear these increases through higher prices from their grocery stores, utility bills, and across the economy.

On average, each U.S. household has paid over $750 more for gasoline and diesel since February 28, 2026, than it would have without the war. The Tracker’s data shows that higher prices from the Iran War increase the everyday costs for Americans. Energy price shocks function as an economy-wide, unacknowledged tax on American households, with costs comparable to large federal programs and policies. 

What’s next?

Consumers are paying higher prices as the Iran War continues. It remains to be seen how American voters will respond in the November midterm elections as affordability becomes a political issue. 

Behind the numbers: Our methodology 

We calculate the extra cost each day by comparing actual retail fuel prices (with data from the American Automobile Association, AAA, and the U.S. Energy Information Agency, EIA) since the beginning of the war against a no-war counterfactual, that is, an estimate of what prices would have been without a war. That no-war counterfactual price is estimated based on the pre-war price and historical daily price changes. Each daily price gap is multiplied by fuel consumption demand, with data sourced from the EIA to produce a cumulative cost burden. Both national and state-level calculations are made using this method and are paired with data from the Census Bureau to find household costs.

For complete details, see our Tracker's Methodology.

For press inquiries, please email climate-solutions@brown.edu.